Bank Holiday but No Forex Trading Break
The LFB submits:
The reaction to better than expected U.S. Employment data on Friday was for equity trade to move higher, commodities to lose ground, and interest rate markets to be bought. In reality the NFP numbers offered a poor picture of the overall U.S. jobs markets, and as such the direction of trade this week will be closely monitored for confirmation that the 10-month pattern of S/P following post-NFP market direction will hold in September.
The 4-hour chart trend and momentum reads are still very mixed across all currencies and most global market asset classes, and will likely stay that way until such time that participation levels increase substantially.
This week houses a raft of interest rate decisions from major Central Banks, and that is very likely to dominate forex sentiment.
Bank Holiday Monday affects Canada and the U.S. and will reduce the regular order flows from around 07:00 ET on Monday.
There will be access to forex trade for those interested, and there may be some volatile reactions as European markets close out, around 11:00 ET.
Euro
12-month 90% correlation to Oil moves. Trading at the 50-day SMA in volatile fashion. Holding a tight channel, with a weak 4-hour chart overall outlook.
12-month 90% correlation to Oil moves. Trading at the 50-day SMA in volatile fashion. Holding a tight channel, with a weak 4-hour chart overall outlook.
Cable
Trapped in tight ranges with a very mixed outlook. Take care here; the pair has found fair value ahead of Bank of England rate decision on Thursday.
Aussie
12-month 96% correlation to Oil moves. Red-flag economic releases are all that is impacting the pair; take care ahead of RBA rate decision on Tuesday.
Cad
12-month 95% correlation to Oil moves. Horrible looking daily chart, sideways 4-hour chart, and sporadic 30-min chart moves ahead of the Bank of Canada rate decision on Wednesday.
Yen
U/J 12-month 69% inverses correlation to Gold moves. E/J and G/J will move hard when U/J finds momentum. Tracking lower with slowing momentum. There is room to move down to 82.00, but it may be hard-fought in the near-term.
Swissy
12-month 93% inverse correlation to S&P and Oil moves. Looking for a near-term long reversal off any failed short tests of 1.0050 as the market locks the pair into daily yield-market reactions.
12-month 93% inverse correlation to S&P and Oil moves. Looking for a near-term long reversal off any failed short tests of 1.0050 as the market locks the pair into daily yield-market reactions.
Dollar Index
The inverse correlation between the safety of Usd-based Treasury notes and the risk of looking for increased yields in equity trade is back in vogue in recent trade. The dollar index however is not moving as one, with the component parts moving in different directions and casting questions as to how sustainable support will be at 82.00. This is a pivotal price point of note, and will not break easily unless S/P futures hold above 1095 this week. Long and Short straddle set-up.
S&P Futures
Equity traders took their cue from NFP numbers that were better than expected, and ignored poor ISM numbers to bid stocks higher in the last session. That will now be put to the test on a Bank Holiday Monday session that will create volatility. Look for support on the Japanese Nikkei at 9100, on the German Dax at 6100, while S/P futures try to hold 1095.
Equity traders took their cue from NFP numbers that were better than expected, and ignored poor ISM numbers to bid stocks higher in the last session. That will now be put to the test on a Bank Holiday Monday session that will create volatility. Look for support on the Japanese Nikkei at 9100, on the German Dax at 6100, while S/P futures try to hold 1095.
Crude Oil
Speculative interest has increased as the global yield starvation forces traders to examine any market that may potentially have better risk/reward than parking spare cash in Treasury notes. Holding 72.50 maintains a bullish outlook for crude oil, although trading ranges will be tight.
Speculative interest has increased as the global yield starvation forces traders to examine any market that may potentially have better risk/reward than parking spare cash in Treasury notes. Holding 72.50 maintains a bullish outlook for crude oil, although trading ranges will be tight.
Gold Bullion
The need to hedge the Usd moves has allowed gold trade to stake a claim to be a stand-alone asset class that seems to have few peers when global expansion is in doubt. Look to buy the dips and then favor the Long trade plan targets.
The need to hedge the Usd moves has allowed gold trade to stake a claim to be a stand-alone asset class that seems to have few peers when global expansion is in doubt. Look to buy the dips and then favor the Long trade plan targets.
Disclosure: None
