Archive for October, 2011

Australian Dollar Slides after RBA Rate Cut but Risk Trends Critical

As expected by both the markets (pricing in an 85 percent probability) and economists (16 of 27 polled by Bloomberg); the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points to 4.50 percent. This was the first move from the central bank in a year (they hiked last November) and the [...]

Dollar Recovery to Continue as S&P 500 Chart Calls for Deeper Losses

The US Dollar is set to continue yesterday’s sharp rebound as the S&P 500 chart setup calls for weakness, bolstering safe-haven demand for the benchmark currency.

Trading the RBA Rate Decision, Japanese Intervention, EU Financial Fears

Volatility was leveraged earlier than expected for the financial markets thanks to a quick withdrawal of confidence in the European Union’s rescue efforts and news that the Japanese government intervened on the yen’s behalf on a massive scale.

The (In)significance of Money

In today’s world of floating currencies, zero interest rates and debt writedowns, what does ‘money’ even stand for…? read more

Using a Valid Trendline

Be Certain to Follow the “Three Touch Rule”

USD Stages Largest Rally Since August- Index Clears Key Resistance

The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) surged more than 2% today as equity markets tumbled on renewed European debt concerns and end-of-month profit taking. However with key event risk on tap this week, the greenback is likely to remain in consolidation.

Bank Research Consensus Weekly 10.31.11

The dollar has fallen just as fast as it rallied and is now almost back to August levels. This has caught the market on the wrong foot, as a general euro bearish sentiment meant that investors had been sitting on significant short euro positions. These are now being unwound – explaining the speed of the [...]

GBP/USD: Trading the Advance 3Q U.K. GDP Report

Economic activity in the U.K. is expected to expand at a faster pace in the third-quarter, and a positive GDP report should prop up the British Pound as it encourages an improved outlook for the region.

US Dollar Speculative Longs Decline from Record

US Dollar speculative long positions have declined from a record. The surge in longs since September is reminiscent of the Fall of 2008 and late 2009.

Forex Strategy Outlook: Volatility Guaranteed, Breakouts Attractive

An exceedingly busy economic calendar points to major moves in the Euro/US Dollar, US Dollar/Japanese Yen, and other key forex pairs. We favor trading high-volatility strategies until further notice.