Guide to Investing

The dollar broke out of the descending channel formation which has held the index since January 15th. The advance however continues to lack conviction with the index holding just above key support. Here are the key levels to watch.

The NZD/USD has held above daily overbought conditions for the ten consecutive sessions as the pair has continued to track broader market sentiment. However the kiwi look to have reached a critical exhaustion point. Here are the key levels to watch.

With the Greek crisis carrying over to yet another week and the ECB rate decision on deck, this week’s analyst questions are particularly poignant for short and medium-term volatility expectations.

One of the, if not the most pertinent indicators of price changes in financial markets are interest rates. This article will delve into this important relationship.

Want to trade when you get home from work? Trade foreign exchange as it is one of the largest markets in the world.

Euro speculative shorts have moderated from a record but that changes little regarding the larger trend. In fact, a backtest of this idea reveals a negative equity curve.

As we have advocated in the last two editions of Weekly Focus, the arguments for buying the dollar have faded going into 2012. Not as a result of Europe’s debt profile becoming more sustainable but as a result of improved global economic data and a more aggressive easing of monetary policy by the major central banks. The Fed’s indirect promise of QE3 should the US economy slow again only confirms our expectation of a structural dollar downtrend. Not least against the commodity currencies but also against the stronger cyclical emerging market currencies. The outlook against the euro is less certain, though.


Kasper Kirkegaard, Senior Analyst, Danske Bank